This book appears to encompass the essence of my PhD thesis (available for purchase on Amazon at the following link: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0471830844/ref=sib_dp_p...-3096906#reader-link).
I am more inclined to believe a range of 15-20% as opposed to 6-7%.
Sam, I am incredibly intrigued by the report and analysis you mentioned. When we are discussing billions of dollars and the USA's trillions in GDP annually, the potential 6-7% figure is rather astounding. Can you imagine surpassing that? If accurate, and I have my reservations but am merely seeking clarification, this signifies a major concern, almost akin to a national emergency. I vaguely remember hearing something similar about the percentage of the UK GDP allocated towards timely bearing replacements, but cannot pinpoint the source.
In the United States, the corrected GDP from 2002-2005 was below $49.8 trillion. The annual direct maintenance costs alone were estimated at $200 billion in 2005. Indirect costs, such as lost business opportunities due to poor maintenance practices, were estimated to be around 20% of GDP, totaling $9.6 trillion from 2002-2005 and $2.5 trillion in 2005. This is an increase from about 14% in the early 1990s. Estimates suggest that 6-7% of GDP, roughly $3 trillion from 2002-2005 or $812 billion in 2005, is attributed to maintenance costs, surpassing direct costs. This highlights the significant impact of maintenance practices on the economy.
Howard, I'm curious about the source of the figures you mention. Can you please share where you obtained this data from?
Learn more about designing tribological systems with the MIT course available at http://web.mit.edu/mitpep/pi/courses/designing_tribological_systems.html. Let this valuable resource guide you, Wally.
I believe that the notion is absurd and nonsensical.
I'm intrigued, what are your thoughts on the concept of "Hogwash"? What is your opinion on this term commonly associated with myths and falsehoods? Let's delve into the meaning behind this curious expression together.
I have doubts about the accuracy of the statistic mentioned in the initial post.
I gathered information from various sources such as articles, studies, and government agencies like the US Dept of Energy, US Census Bureau, and Bureau of Labor Statistics while collaborating with Terry O'Hanlon on the "Skilled Workforce in the 21st Century" and the "Maintenance and Management Communication Study." The data is available but not easily accessible due to the lack of attention on our industry. Similar numbers on direct costs were also published by Allied Reliability in their latest marketing piece, "PdM Secrets Revealed." Sincerely, Howard.
- 13-12-2024
- Victor Thompson
Recent studies in the field of "tribology" have highlighted the significant impact of high friction and wear on resource wastage, amounting to over 6% of the Gross National Product. This emphasizes the importance of enhanced tribological knowledge in reducing such wastage and generating substantial savings. The correlation between friction failures, lubrication, and resource wastage is a crucial factor to consider, with the potential for significant economic implications. Historical data indicates that in the early 1990s, the loss of potential in manufacturing and industry due to these factors accounted for 14% of the GDP, which has since increased to 20%. This underscores the urgent need for advancements in tribological research.incerely, Howard
I share Daryl's opinion on this matter. Although I don't have the data in front of me, it doesn't seem accurate to assume that service-based industries allocate a significant portion of their budget towards repairing or replacing mechanical machinery. This is especially true for consumers, with the exception being the automotive sector. However, it's unlikely that a high number of cars are taken out of commission solely due to lubrication issues, and those that are would typically be older models with little residual value. These are my personal thoughts, and I do not profess to be an expert in economics or business. Having access to the specific details of the report would make it easier to evaluate the claim. On a separate note, Howard, where did you get the figure of the 2005 United States GDP being $50 trillion? According to sources such as the CIA World Factbook, the World Bank, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the 2005 US GDP was actually around 12.5 trillion annually, not quarterly.
While I don't have any specific statistics or studies to reference, I do remember hearing similar claims about 20 to 25 years ago during the peak of interest in Tribology. Although the exact numbers escape me, it was clear that there was some inefficiency present. However, the widespread nature of the issue made it difficult to address in a cost-effective manner. It seemed that action would only be taken when economically necessary. One potential future catalyst for change could be increased cost competition from emerging global economies. In the near future, engineers in North America may find themselves competing against a growing pool of highly skilled and motivated engineers from around the world.
Oops, I stand corrected. The analysis I conducted focused on the cumulative figures for the years 2002-2005, and the overall effect during that timeframe. While the revised 2005 data slightly decreases the total, the estimated loss for that specific year remains at $2.5 trillion, with a combined loss of nearly $9.5 trillion for the four-year period. Thank you for bringing the grammatical error to my attention. - Howard
Howard, (Guys) In my view, having ten anecdotes does not constitute reliable data. I have my doubts about the credibility of this information for several reasons. Firstly, the numbers just don't add up. According to Pat Buchannan of CSNBC, 1% of GDP amounts to approximately 105 - 130 billion, which contradicts the presented figures. Secondly, based on my knowledge of maintenance, I highly doubt that the necessary detailed data is available to accurately determine the portion attributed to poor lubrication. And lastly, there has been no dependable and comprehensive study or report to support these claims. Therefore, we are left with opinions, hearsay, and anecdotal evidence, none of which can be considered as concrete facts.
Hey Ron, did you know that the competition for Engineers in North America is getting tougher with the rise of highly skilled and motivated Engineers from other parts of the world? This global phenomenon is a result of some countries taking advantage of their lower labor costs, making skill and knowledge more of a cost-effective option. It's not exactly fair, is it?
In the tribology course at MIT, the material is presented not just in terms of direct costs like repair expenses, but also includes indirect costs such as lost business and downtime. Different groups have extrapolated the direct maintenance cost in the USA, with numbers slightly above $200B being mentioned. Indirect costs, such as 14% in the early 1990s, were discussed by a US Government entity, and the 20% figure was estimated from existing data. There is a concern that the 6-7% figure from the 1990s may no longer be accurate. "The World is Flat" raises alarms about the future, and the author believes that the current trend in engineering is changeable. While some suggest pursuing business for monetary gains, there is a push to encourage younger generations to consider trades and engineering. Efforts such as company universities and programs like Project Lead the Way aim to attract new talent as the workforce transitions with the aging of the baby-boomer generation. There are challenges in the education system, but also promising initiatives to bridge the gap.
Howard, I have not personally reviewed the material or report in question, as all the information I have come across is from secondary or even tertiary sources. Without confirmation from someone who has actually seen the report, we are essentially relying on hearsay. Additionally, without firsthand knowledge of the report, I have serious doubts about the ability to accurately attribute costs to poor lubrication, whether directly or indirectly. This is a complex issue that many organizations struggle with internally, let alone on a national scale such as the United States.
Regarding our previous discussions, while we generally agree on most topics, there are a couple of areas where we differ. The skills gap is just one aspect of the conversation; there is also the issue of knowledge transfer and global competitiveness. In today's competitive landscape, where profit margins are crucial and companies are competing for market share, the outsourcing of various functions is becoming a major threat. Industries like call centers, design services, software development, and even healthcare are increasingly being outsourced to countries like India due to cost advantages. Some nations are even importing skilled resources as needed, further impacting the job market.
These trends highlight the importance of addressing global competitiveness and the challenges faced by industries in a rapidly changing landscape.
Daryl shares his belief that business schools may not adequately prepare new managers for long-term goals and cause-and-effect scenarios, leading to potential issues in decision-making. He highlights the pros and cons of outsourcing, citing negative experiences with Dell's internal problems. Daryl also discusses how businesses are shifting to North America, particularly the South and West, due to lower labor costs. Additionally, he mentions efforts to import skilled workers to address low unemployment rates in the USA. Daryl is involved in controlling this issue through the IEEE-USAB. Overall, he emphasizes the need for a customized approach in business strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all solution like outsourcing.
According to Wikipedia, the United States alone incurs losses of $500 billion. This staggering statistic can be found at the following link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tribology.
- 13-12-2024
- Vanessa Carter
After reviewing the Wikipedia entry, I noticed that the figure of $500 billion is labeled as "[citation needed]", indicating that its source is unknown. The reliability of user-contributed content on platforms like Wikipedia is a concern, as individuals may present themselves as experts without thorough verification. How effective is the process for flagging unsubstantiated information? While the unverified $500 billion claim was addressed, what other inaccuracies may have gone unnoticed? This is reminiscent of unverified content in trade journals, where questionable articles are sometimes published. I have come across some pieces that were clearly unreliable.
Discover an exclusive interview with Peter Jost delving into the groundbreaking "Jost Report" and subsequent reports citing "percent of GNP" statistics. Gain valuable insights from this enlightening discussion. Read more at: http://www.machinerylubrication.com/article_detail.asp?...ookgroup=Lubrication
- 13-12-2024
- Penelope James
Discover fascinating articles and resources above. Tribology goes beyond just rotating equipment and can have a significant impact on energy and material losses across various mechanical devices. Understanding the costs associated with friction and wear is crucial for any national economy. For instance, implementing simple tribological improvements in the United States, such as using lubricants that increase mechanical efficiency by 5%, could result in savings of around US$0.6 billion annually. The potential savings from applying tribological principles are immense and can lead to substantial economic benefits. For example, in the U.K., it was estimated that leveraging tribology could save approximately L515 million per year. These examples demonstrate the significant role tribology plays in enhancing efficiency and reducing costs across industries. Researchers and engineers continue to explore innovative materials and lubricants to overcome traditional limitations imposed by friction and wear. By embracing advancements in tribology, industries can achieve substantial savings in energy consumption and production costs, making it a vital area of research and development. From adiabatic engines to surface-treated tools, the possibilities for improving performance through tribology are endless. Explore how tribology can revolutionize your industry and drive cost-effective solutions.
- 13-12-2024
- Quentin Foster
Thank you, Howard, for providing the quote. I am currently involved in similar projects in the UK focusing on Skills and resource management within the rail and water sectors. I would like to clarify a potential misconception about outsourcing. While outsourcing can be beneficial, many businesses and consultants view it as a one-size-fits-all solution. Meanwhile, I have been successful in assisting companies that have faced challenges with outsourcing, helping them to recover. I believe that each business case is unique and requires tailored solutions, rather than a blanket approach to outsourcing. In fact, I have discussed the risks of outsourcing and included a chapter in my upcoming book on strategies to improve outsourcing practices (Drawing lessons from the past). The debate on outsourcing has evolved beyond simplistic perspectives, although there are exceptions.
I once had a colleague who often remarked on the challenges of physical asset management, saying "anyone can write anything." This is similar to unregulated "trade journal" content, where accuracy can be questionable. In some cases, unreliable information is published, leading to a lack of credibility. As I have mentioned before, anecdotes alone do not constitute data. I have frequently encountered situations where I had to question the sources of information in presentations, papers, or courses. Often, the claims are unsupported, statistics are poorly researched, and there is a mix of hearsay and fiction.
Pete, Your article is truly fascinating. Do you have any electronic links to it available?
Attached is an intriguing discussion on the potential cost savings that can be achieved through improvements in machine lubrication practices at manufacturing sites. While the exact numbers may vary, it is evident that there is a significant opportunity for equipment owners to reduce repair costs and increase their return on investment by focusing on lubrication practices.
Having conducted numerous benchmark comparisons at various manufacturing sites, including those in the pulp and paper, cement, and food handling industries, I am confident in the financial benefits that can be realized through better lubrication practices. In fact, the savings projected in a study on Tribology for Industry, conducted by Jost on behalf of the British Ministry for Education and Science, are still relevant today.
By addressing lubrication practices, mechanical component repair costs could potentially be reduced by up to 25%. This aligns with a Chinese study suggesting that 1-1.5% of GDP savings can be achieved through improved lubrication practices. Ultimately, what matters is measurable results, which can only be obtained through on-site assessments and analysis. If you are interested in exploring these opportunities further, feel free to contact me at mjohnson@amrri.com.
For more information, refer to the attached document "Role_of_Lubrication_in_Maintenance.pdf" (114 KB). Cheers, Mike Johnson, CMRP.
I wanted to provide clarification on the statement that approximately 6 to 7% of America's Gross National Product (around $240 billion) is spent on repairing wear damage caused by inadequate lubrication. It is important to note that a part or component will not reach its expected lifespan if it is not properly lubricated. The author likely meant to emphasize premature wear or random failures, rather than a wear-out failure. When a part reaches its specific lifespan, it indicates that maintenance has been effective in preserving the part's longevity. Contaminants in the oil play a significant role in the lifespan of components. Maintaining clean oil and adhering to ISO cleanliness standards will undoubtedly extend the lifespan of parts. - Rolly Angeles
- 13-12-2024
- Jessica Freeman